Tuesday, August 30, 2011


·         CXO 
o   Leading Permian producer focused in 3 core plays – 100% Permian in the Yeso, Delaware Basin & Wolfberry
o   Predominately oil & liquids-rich resource base-- 85% liquids
o   40% growth-- ~1/2 coming through the drill bit & ~1/2 through acquisitions
o   Cost Structure—very competitive with ~$6 in LOEs, ~$7 in taxes, $3 in G&A & ~$5 in interest; crank out ~$60/B profit driven by strong operating efficiencies derived from focusing on 1 basin & 3 core areas
o   Proved Reserves: 342.6MMBoe at mid-year ‘11 (100% Permian)
o   807,539 gross (397,234 net) acres with over 8,700 drilling locations (~3000 in the New Mexico Shale, 1,400 in the Delaware Basin & > 4,000 in the Wolfberry-- located in the middle of the 3 -4 big players in the Permian
o   Permian Basin - running 35 rigs (most active driller in the region), not a simple place to understand because there are multiple zones, the zones are called different things in different places, different companies call the same thing different names
o   Delaware Basin - bigger & deeper; zones are thicker & it's ~300- mile long basin; 160k net acres, 1,464 locations, plan to drill ~100 wells this year in the Bone Spring/ Avalon Shale; industry has 80 rigs running here & drilled 700 wells in the Bone Spring over the last 2-3 years--CXO drilled or participated in ~20% of those
o   New Mexico Shelf –160k net acres, running 14 rigs (12 in Yeso, 2 in Abo), plan to drill ~500 wells this year in the Yeso (crown jewel) & Lower Abo formations; Co has drilled over 900 Yeso wells to date (leader); producing from the Avalon Shale, Bone Springs Sand & Wolfcamp -- all equally prospective & productive
o   TX Permian – running 15 rigs, plan to drill ~250 wells this year, focused on the Wolfberry play, 1,893 locations; recently acquired 400 locations; field currently drilled on 40-acre spacing, started experimenting with 20-acre spacing—by YE’11, expect to have 30 wells drilled on 20-acre spacing-- adds another over 2,000 locations
o   Capital Structure-  very simple---just a revolver with $1.8B of availability & equity
o   Capex Budget – running 35 rigs, $1.35B in capital projects
·         ROSE
o   Production Guidance: ’11 exit rate 190-200MMcfe/d, FY’12 220-240MMcfe/d
o   Proved Reserves:  doubled to 970Bcfe at mid-year ‘11, including 884Bcfe Eagle Ford
o   Eagle Ford:  65k net acres—26,500 Gates Ranch (liquids), 23,500 other liquids, 15,000 dry gas; , increased EURs to 10Bcfe/well at Gates Ranch, 36 wells completed in liquids area producing 125MMcfe/d, 6-10 yrs of inventory
o   Take-Away Capacity:  increased by 20% to 331MMcfe/d
o   Southern Alberta Basin:  300k net acres, 6BBoe of OIP, drilled 11 delineation wells, expanded horizontal drilling program to 7 wells this year; 250Boe/d IPs, 185MBoe EUR, $4MM well cost, $27.46/Boe F&D cost, 21% ROR at $85 WTI
o   2011 Capex Budget: increased to $475MM
o   Liquidity:  $430MM
·         BEXP 
o   Production: added 2nd frac crew on 3/31, 2Q record @ 10,401Boe/d, July ’11 @ 13,104Boe/d, & see some very strong growth in 2H’11, with 3Q production +28% seq to 15,500Boe/d
o   Williston Basin – de-risked 235k net acres in core, 79 long-lateral wells drilled to date, 11-18 yr inventory with 1379 locations; growing from 10 to 12 rigs by 1Q’12, ~132 gross well run-rate; $15.57/Boe F&D costs
o   Well Economics:  $8.9MM well cost, 600MBoe EUR, est $8.7MM NPV, 51% IRR, 1.9 year payback; additional cost savings thru 3-well pad drilling--expect to dill > 70% of wells in 2H’11 from pads
o   Cost Savings – expect to save 5% by using more pad drilling, 5% with lower completion costs fracing 3-wells at a time from a multi-well pad; reducing infrastructure capital by installing 430 miles of oil, freshwater, salt water, disposable wells & gas lines (70% completed)
o   Catalysts – drilling TFS wells in ND (avg IP > 1,840Boe/d) –de-risking acreage; also beginning to drill wells in MT —seeing very solid early results with 7 wells averaging 1,576Boe/d & 4 more wells planned for ‘11
o   Liquidity:   $ 687MM of liquidity a/0 6/30 ($362MM cash + $325MM borrowing base); also other conventional asset sales, the borrowing base redetermination in Oct ’11 & the potential monetization of a portion of the midstream business next year
o   Hedges - actively hedging our oil volumes out 24 months; 2H’11, have 56% of our production hedged with a $70 floor & ~3.9MMB hedged in ’12 with a $71 floor
·         SD
o   3-Year Strategy: expect to increase EBITDA from $700MM to $2B by YE’14 with double-digit annual production growth, cut Debt/ EBITDA to 2.0x & reach cash flow break-even by YE’14—will need ~$1B of non-debt financing over the next 3 years -- think it is achievable
o   Monetizations: anticipate having another ~$1B royalty trust this year, netting $600MM-$700MM to SD before YE’11; also $500MM MS JV ($250MM up front + $250MM carry)
o   2011 Capex: recently raised by $500MM to $1.8B; +$275MM for lease acquisitions ($200MM New MS play) + $200MM of drilling capital to accelerate MS Lime play; ’12 capex $1.55B with 47% to MS & 43% Permian
o   MS Lime Play – 900k net acres, 4,000 locations, plan to increase rig count to 18 by YE’11, then to 24 rigs in ’12, & 30 rigs by YE’12; plan to drill 1 well/month/rig; well cost $3MM, 409MBoe EURs; drilled 111 wells to date, high-permeability carbonate; have history of 7800 vertical wells---horizontal well is like connecting 10 vertical wells at once
o   New MS Oil Play – started to acquire acreage in a new MS play—at 200k net acres, on the way to 1MM net acres, allocated $200MM for leases & expect to reach our goal by YE’11; 8500 vertical wells drilled to date by industry + decades of production history
o   Permian – 200k net acres in the Central Basin Platform, running 16 rigs, plan to drill over 800 wells this year , well cost $760k; 10-year inventory; shallow, low-cost wells